Rome, Mar. 9 (LaPresse) – The surge in fuel prices risks shattering the government’s macroeconomic forecasts outlined in the latest Economic and Financial Planning Document. The GDP target, projected to grow by 0.7% this year, is at risk. The DPF had estimated oil prices to decline this year, with Brent at $66.1 per barrel, while futures remain steadily above $100 per barrel due to the crisis with Iran. Gas prices were forecast at €31.9 per megawatt-hour, while the Amsterdam TTF nears €60. In October, the government assumed slightly lower oil prices over the entire forecast horizon, with an average reduction of about $2 per year compared to previous estimates, and also lower gas prices than prior projections. "The cumulative effect of lower oil and gas prices," the DPF reads, "generates a positive impact of 0.1 points for GDP in 2025, 0.2 points in 2026, zero in 2027, and negative 0.1 points in 2028."
The government document then simulates a risk scenario with less favorable energy commodity prices and higher prices for both oil and gas: oil prices are set at around $76 in 2026 and 2027 and $66.8 in 2028, while gas prices are set at an average of €41.9 in 2026 and €39.4 in 2027, before falling to €26.7 in 2028. In this scenario, the simulated GDP growth rate would be lower than the baseline by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and 0.3 points in 2027. The return of energy prices to reference scenario levels in 2028 would bring GDP growth back in line with the trend macroeconomic framework.